Bottom line: June and September are the best months for travel (travel suitability index hits 100%—dry, comfortable, and fewer tourists); December has the lowest index (only 50%) due to frequent rain and peak Christmas holiday crowds, making it better for indoor activities. Rainfall in Bali also varies by region—eastern/northern areas and the mountains are rainier than the lowlands, and it’s rare for the entire island to rain at once.
The numbers in the chart below are long-term monthly averages; to check current temperature and whether it’s raining in Bali, you can view Bali real-time weather and 7-day forecast, with separate displays for Kuta, Ubud, and Nusa Dua.
Before answering the most frequently asked question in our two Facebook groups—「Bali/Indonesia Food & Fun」 and 「Go Bali Go Bali Travel」—here’s a quick chart to help you understand:
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When interpreting the data in this chart, keep the following points in mind:
Average Rainfall Probability
‘Average rainfall probability’ refers to the likelihood of rain occurring in a specific area and time frame, usually expressed as a percentage. For example, if a forecast says a region has a 30% chance of rain, it means that under similar conditions, rain occurred 30% of the time in the past. Note that rainfall probability does not indicate the duration or intensity of rain, nor does it mean the area will experience rain 30% of the time. When interpreting rainfall probability, understand that it only represents the chance of precipitation, not its extent.
Rain Days
“Rain Days” refers to the number of days within a period when at least one rainfall event occurs. Typically, a day is considered to have rainfall when the total precipitation reaches 0.1 millimeters or more. Therefore, rain days count the total number of days with rainfall during a given timeframe. It’s important to note that rain days do not reflect the intensity or duration of the rain. For example, if a location experiences rainfall on 5 days in a month, with each day’s precipitation exceeding 0.1 millimeters, the rain days for that month would be 5.
Temperature Explained
“Average temperature” refers to the actual measured air temperature, while the “feels-like” temperature is how hot or cold it feels to the human body, influenced by humidity, wind speed, and sunlight. For instance, at the same 30°C, high humidity makes it feel stuffier, while a breeze can make it feel cooler.
Travel Suitability Index
“Travel Suitability Index” is a comprehensive recommendation based on factors like monthly rainfall probability, rain days, average temperature, and the number of tourists on the island. A higher score indicates more stable weather, fewer visitors, and better conditions for outdoor activities. For example, June and September have an index of 100%, meaning dry, less rainy, comfortable weather with fewer tourists—ideal for travel. In contrast, December scores only 50% due to frequent rain and a surge of holiday travelers, making indoor itineraries more advisable. This index helps travelers quickly assess whether the weather and crowd levels for a given month are favorable.
Quick Reference: Bali Actually Has Five Peak Seasons! How to Avoid Crowds and Travel Smart?
It Usually Doesn’t Rain Across the Entire Island
In Bali, rainfall distribution is influenced by terrain, with the eastern and northern regions often seeing rain, and mountainous areas more prone to precipitation than lowlands. So, even during the rainy season, some areas may be sunny while others experience showers. It’s very rare for rain to fall across the entire island at once.
What is a Rainy Season Backup Plan?
“Rainy Season Backup Plan” refers to a “Plan B” for switching to alternative activities when outdoor plans are disrupted by rain. Check out our collection of 60 Backup Strategies for Rainy Days in Bali.
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