Bottom line: The waters south of Bali sit in a high-risk plate boundary zone, with experts warning of a potential magnitude 8+ ‘megathrust’ earthquake accompanied by a tsunami, though the exact timing cannot be predicted. Practical advice for travelers: ask about tsunami evacuation routes when checking into your hotel. If you feel a strong earthquake in coastal areas like Kuta or Seminyak, immediately move away from buildings and the beach, heading to higher ground.
Experts recently noted that Bali may face the potential risk of a ‘megathrust’ earthquake, with its epicenter in the waters south of the island. Irwan Meilano, a seismology professor at Indonesia’s Bandung Institute of Technology, explained that megathrust earthquakes typically occur at plate boundaries and often exceed magnitude 8. These quakes cause drastic crustal movement, triggering severe hazards like tsunamis.
Several potential epicenters for massive earthquakes in Indonesia
Southern Bali is one of the high-risk zones along such plate boundaries. This region stretches from Indonesia’s Aceh province, through North Sumatra, West Sumatra, then extends to the Sunda Strait, southern Java, and into the waters south of Bali and Lombok. Because these areas lie on plate boundaries, they are all susceptible to megathrust earthquakes.
Irwan emphasized that these earthquakes are characterized by their massive scale and frequent association with tsunamis. He explained that thrust faults involve vertical movement of crustal plates on the seafloor, causing seawater to rise and triggering tsunamis. While these potential risks cannot be ignored, he urged the public not to panic but to prepare adequately for possible earthquake disasters.
Regarding the specific timing of such an earthquake, Irwan stated that scientists currently cannot precisely predict when it will occur. He reminded the public to understand this as a risk estimate, not a definite prophecy. He reiterated that the key is to stay alert and take preventive measures, rather than causing unnecessary panic. The hope is that even with this potential risk, we can reduce the impact of disasters through preparation.
This region has not experienced a particularly large earthquake in over 100 years. Experts say the arrival of such an earthquake is ‘just a matter of time’!
Bali’s earthquake frequency increased significantly in 2024
Bali, located on the Pacific Ring of Fire, recorded 582 earthquakes in 2024—far exceeding the 324 in 2023. The vast majority were below magnitude 3.0, with 117 ranging from 3.1 to 5.0, and none exceeding 5.0. In September, two significant quakes of magnitude 4.8 and 4.9 struck the Ubud area.
Disaster Preparedness and Response Measures
Major tourist areas like Kuta and Seminyak face risks from earthquakes and tsunamis. Local tsunami evacuation signs are in place, and travelers are advised to ask about evacuation routes and safe zones upon check-in. If you feel a strong tremor, immediately move away from buildings and the beach, heading to higher ground for safety.
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